Urban natural disasters quantitative evaluation method
Traces the history, we discover not hard, the history of human is a history of war day to fight, is also a history of the conquest of the self. From the legendary NvWaBuTian to dayu water, from victory over SARS to the fight against bird flu, man never stopped fighting against disasters.
The continuous improvement of urbanization level marks the human wen Ming increasingly progress, but a lot of fact also proves the existence of contemporary urban development and disaster supply relationship, errors in the process of the urbanization intensified the development of urban disasters, disasters intensified in turn hindered the urban sustainable development, mankind is faced with the new test. At present, the disaster management has become the important means to realize the sustainable development of cities around the world, and the disaster assessment is an important part of disaster management, is the foundation of all disasters management decisions. Disaster assessment is the comprehensive reflect disaster, disaster reduction goal set, optimization of disaster prevention, disaster relief, relief measures, evaluation and mitigation benefits, basic basis for police decision of disaster reduction, and develop a plan of land use, development, and develop a plan of social economic development of important resources.
From the perspective of system theory, urban disaster evaluation system of higher dimensional characteristics, correlation between complex system and the system function of nonlinear characteristics of urban disasters. Therefore, identifying a quantitative assessment of urban disasters are important and difficult task. Disaster assessment content is so confused, in short, Dr. School to study all the content is obviously impossible.
, therefore, this paper mainly in view of the current disaster evaluation, the hot and difficult problems in earthquake and storm surge disasters, for example was studied, the main contents and results are as follows: 1 the work on the basis of a large number of literature investigation, this paper demonstrates the relationship between urban development and disaster formation of the mutual feedback, illuminates the disaster assessment in the role of urban disaster management and sustainable development, combing the disaster assessment especially quantitative assessment of development both at home and abroad, puts forward the disaster assessment content of the fourdimensional model, the combined space of disaster evaluation.
Finally, the quantitative evaluation method and its application in disaster assessment are summarized, for this article is going to carry out level of urban disaster assessment and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity assessment methodology research laid the foundation. 2 build a city natural disaster grade identification of fuzzy clustering analysis model.
First of all clarify the concept of disaster grade and grade evaluation. Then, content of disaster assessment, including hazard level used in the present study of characterization methods, disaster grade evaluation index system and calculation method for the grade evaluation of disaster and elaborates the hierarchy method, points out the deficiency in the current disaster grade evaluation. On this basis, the wind BaoChao disasters, for example, first using the direct economic losses, the death toll and the affected area of the data, using the fuzzy cluster method to set up the model of disaster grade class, and then adopt the method of fuzzy closeness to evaluate samples identified, established after the first clustering recognition disaster grade evaluation method system. Compared with other methods, the method system more in line with peoples cognitive process.
Final paper for applicability of the method are discussed, points out that the sample of small and regional determines the reliability and applicability of the method. 3 build the urban disasters grades of grey neural network forecast model. Compared with the evaluation after a disaster, disaster or catastrophe level disasters in advance before information will greatly improve the timeliness, relief to help disaster relief supplies and personnel allocation, reduce disaster losses. Based on storm surge disasters, for example, the use of storm surge data as training samples, factors to disaster degrees for the target established a three layer BP neural network model, has carried on the forecast to disaster grade evaluation.
Grey correlation analysis method is used to analyse the factors associated with screening, can reduce the workload forecast, improve the accuracy of prediction, the empirical analysis show that the method is feasible.
4 build the aseismatic ability of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of urban community. Papers in earthquake disasters, for example discusses the urban community disaster prevention and mitigation capacity assessment method system. Unlike building aseismic capability assessment, this paper build city community aseismatic ability of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and give full consideration to the urban community in a variety of factors, including building density, population density and the degree of damage of buildings under a certain intensity for the earthquakeresistant capacity; Sorting method is used to determine the weights of various factors, using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method solved due to the concept of fuzziness cause problems for the antiseismic ability of hierarchies.
Urban natural disasters quantitative evaluation method
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